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Latest Research Notes
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The 600 MHz Incentive Auction – Redux
After falling 75% short of the required $88B FCC-mandated clearing target, Phase 1 of the TV Broadcast Incentive Auction ended on August 30th after just 27 rounds.
Phase 2, which will begin on September 13th, looks to clear 114 MHz of total spectrum depth instead of the 126 MHz goal established in the initial phase.
Only broadcasters that were “provisional market winners” in the prior round will be able to compete to sell their license(s). Although the rules remain largely intact, there exists the possibility for any given station to be preemptively deemed as “not needed” or a “provisional” winner at the outset of Phase 2 once the FCC has recalculated the logistics to provide a net total of 90 MHz for bidders in the forward portion of the auction.
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Is Spectrum a Risky Investment?
Investments backed by spectrum value are inherently volatile. Historical transactions illustrate that estimates based on generalized average values have produced wildly inaccurate analysis, models and turbulent trading ranges.
This is not likely to change for quite some time to come.
In spending a good part of the past 15 years creating valuation models, scenario probabilities and working through auction/transaction theories, it’s clear that context is by far the critical driver of value. Every spectrum transaction is highly unique, distinct. Although patterns emerge and persist over varying periods of time, among the core components to accurately assessing worth of airwaves are:
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Update: TV Broadcast Incentive Auction
June was a busy month for both the FCC and TV Broadcasters. As the TV Incentive Spectrum Auction timeline approaches (March 29, 2016), the FCC has closed the loop on several key issues that were previously left open.
Additionally, two petitions filed by the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) and Sinclair Broadcasting, challenging elements and mechanics of the upcoming spectrum auction, were each turned down by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia.
This major obstacle aside clears the path to the FCC’s proposed overall auction timetable. Highlights from the month include:
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